Assumption Mapping Worksheet

Converting Assumptions to Stakeholder Questions

Purpose: Use this worksheet to systematically identify, evaluate, and convert your problem tree assumptions into testable stakeholder questions. Complete one section for each major assumption in your analysis.

Part 1: Assumption Inventory

Assumption Categories Checklist

Check all categories where you have made assumptions:

Scale and Scope Assumptions:

Number of people affected

Geographic distribution of problem

Demographic differences in impact

Trends over time (getting worse/better)

Causal Assumptions:

Primary causes of the problem

How causes lead to effects

Interactions between multiple causes

Intervention impact predictions

Priority and Impact Assumptions:

Most important causes to address

Community priorities and concerns

Readiness for specific interventions

Most serious consequences

Context Assumptions:

Cultural factors and norms

Policy environment effects

Economic constraints

Social dynamics influence

Part 2: Detailed Assumption Analysis

Assumption #1

1. Assumption Statement:

Write your specific assumption in clear, testable terms:

2. Evidence Level Assessment (1-5 scale):

1 - Pure assumption, no evidence

2 - Logical inference from limited data

3 - Some supporting evidence

4 - Good evidence with some gaps

5 - Strong, verified evidence

Current Evidence Supporting This Assumption:

3. Risk Level if Wrong (1-5 scale):

1 - Minimal impact on intervention

2 - Minor adjustments needed

3 - Moderate redesign required

4 - Major strategy changes needed

5 - Complete intervention failure

Potential Consequences if This Assumption is Wrong:

4. Best Stakeholder(s) to Validate:

Affected populations (specify: _____________________)

Service providers (specify: _____________________)

Decision makers (specify: _____________________)

Community leaders (specify: _____________________)

Other: _________________________________________

5. Question Design (using OPEN formula):

Primary Question:

Follow-up Question 1:

Follow-up Question 2:

Probing Questions (if needed):

Can you give me an example?
What happened next?
How did that make you feel?
What do you mean by...?

6. Validation Plan:

If assumption is CONFIRMED:

Next steps:

If assumption is PARTIALLY correct:

Next steps:

If assumption is WRONG:

Next steps:

Assumption #2

1. Assumption Statement:

Write your specific assumption in clear, testable terms:

2. Evidence Level Assessment (1-5 scale):

1 - Pure assumption, no evidence

2 - Logical inference from limited data

3 - Some supporting evidence

4 - Good evidence with some gaps

5 - Strong, verified evidence

Current Evidence Supporting This Assumption:

3. Risk Level if Wrong (1-5 scale):

1 - Minimal impact on intervention

2 - Minor adjustments needed

3 - Moderate redesign required

4 - Major strategy changes needed

5 - Complete intervention failure

Potential Consequences if This Assumption is Wrong:

4. Best Stakeholder(s) to Validate:

Affected populations (specify: _____________________)

Service providers (specify: _____________________)

Decision makers (specify: _____________________)

Community leaders (specify: _____________________)

Other: _________________________________________

5. Question Design (using OPEN formula):

Primary Question:

Follow-up Question 1:

Follow-up Question 2:

6. Validation Plan:

If assumption is CONFIRMED:

Next steps:

If assumption is PARTIALLY correct:

Next steps:

If assumption is WRONG:

Next steps:

Assumption #3

1. Assumption Statement:

Write your specific assumption in clear, testable terms:

2. Evidence Level Assessment (1-5 scale):

1 - Pure assumption, no evidence

2 - Logical inference from limited data

3 - Some supporting evidence

4 - Good evidence with some gaps

5 - Strong, verified evidence

Current Evidence Supporting This Assumption:

3. Risk Level if Wrong (1-5 scale):

1 - Minimal impact on intervention

2 - Minor adjustments needed

3 - Moderate redesign required

4 - Major strategy changes needed

5 - Complete intervention failure

Potential Consequences if This Assumption is Wrong:

4. Best Stakeholder(s) to Validate:

Affected populations (specify: _____________________)

Service providers (specify: _____________________)

Decision makers (specify: _____________________)

Community leaders (specify: _____________________)

Other: _________________________________________

5. Question Design (using OPEN formula):

Primary Question:

Follow-up Question 1:

Follow-up Question 2:

6. Validation Plan:

If assumption is CONFIRMED:

Next steps:

If assumption is PARTIALLY correct:

Next steps:

If assumption is WRONG:

Next steps:

Part 3: Priority Matrix

High-Risk Assumptions Summary

List assumptions with Risk Level 4-5 that need immediate validation:

Low-Evidence Assumptions Summary

List assumptions with Evidence Level 1-2 that need urgent investigation:

Part 4: Stakeholder Engagement Plan

Validation Conversation Schedule

Stakeholder Group	Key Contact Person	Scheduled Date	Primary Assumptions to Test

Question Bank by Stakeholder Type

Questions for Affected Populations:

Questions for Service Providers:

Questions for Decision Makers:

Questions for Community Leaders:

Part 5: Transformation Examples Reference

OPEN Formula Reminder:

Open-ended: Allows for unexpected responses
Particular: Specific to stakeholder experience
Exploratory: Invites elaboration and examples
Neutral: Doesn't lead toward desired answer

Good Question Examples:

Instead of: "Do women have trouble getting credit?"
Ask: "Can you walk me through what happens when someone in your community wants to borrow money? How might that experience be different for men and women?"

Instead of: "Is distance to the clinic a problem?"
Ask: "Tell me about the last time someone in your family needed healthcare. What was that journey like from start to finish?"

Instead of: "Do young people like new farming techniques?"
Ask: "When young people in this area think about farming, what attracts them to it? What concerns them? How do they approach farming decisions differently than their parents?"

Part 6: Post-Validation Action Plan

Assumption Updates Log

Original Assumption	Validation Result	Required Changes	Action Taken	Date

Problem Tree Revisions Needed:

New Questions Generated:

Notes Section

Use this space for additional observations, insights, or reminders:

Remember: Great questions transform assumptions into insights. The quality of your questions determines the quality of your learning, and the quality of your learning determines the effectiveness of your intervention.